Printable Version | Send to Friend
Subscribe | Add to Favorites
Author: Subject: Your bid and why?
wizard



Mood:  Bemused
posted on 4-18-2006 at 11:50 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Your bid and why?

This happened to wizardofwas.
Situation: 5-player game. Hand 2 (2 cards)
You are last to bid.
You hold 2 Wizards.
Two different players have already bid 1 trick each. What do you bid and why?

View User's Profile E-Mail User View All Posts By User U2U wizard This User Has MSN Messenger   wizard 's ICQ status
The Boss



Mood:  
posted on 4-20-2006 at 10:32 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Another interesting problem!

In this problem, it's a little hard to guess what the other players may have. Do the 2 players who bid 1, have a Wizard or not?

I guess this is another situation where the best choice is to bid 2, because of the points we may gain on our oponents if we make our bid.

If the dealer's card isn't a Wizard, we know that there's only 2 Wizards left in the 57 cards that we don't see. And our oponents have 8 cards unknown to us, and obviously, 4 of them are NOT Wizards.

I don't know which are the odds. (I'll let Mr.Wizard count the odds this time. ...) (...then I'll correct him. ) But I believe that the odds are on our side to make 2 tricks more often than 1 or 0 in this situation.

This reminds me Poker. There are some situations when if we stay in the hand, the odds are that we will win more than we will lose, if we always play the same way those situations all our life.

So in this situation, maybe we'll lose if we bid 2 THIS TIME, but in the long run, we'll win more often than lose. And the impact on the score will be highly in our favor if we make our 2 tricks. (+40, compared to +20 +20 -10 -10 for the 4 other players)

View User's Profile View All Posts By User U2U The+Boss
The Boss



Mood:  
posted on 4-22-2006 at 09:56 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The science of biding...

The idea of biding is to try to estime the odds the best we can, WITH THE INFORMATIONS WE HAVE, WHEN IT IS OUR TURN TO BID. (Not right after the cards are dealt, unless we bid first.)

So, if the first 4 bids were 0, and if nobody bid like an idiot or misclicked, the odds to make 2 tricks are 100%. And even if somebody with 1 Wizard misclicked, this player will escape the 1st card, and we will win 2 tricks with our 2 Wizards.

View User's Profile View All Posts By User U2U The+Boss
wizard



Mood:  Bemused
posted on 4-23-2006 at 02:19 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
In reality wizardofwas bid 2 in this situation. Both of the prior bidders held wizards so he lost 20 points and they each gained 30.
There were only 10 cards dealt out of a deck of 60 plus the up-card for trump so what were the odds that all 4 Wizards would be dealt? If you simply go by the odds it's a no-brainer but we have additional information in the form of 2 bids of 1. Either or both bids could have been made with a high trump. In this situation a knowledge of the player's pattern of play is not very helpful either because all players would bid 1 with a Wizard and most would bid 1 with a high trump. With only 2 cards in each hand any trump card from the 7-Ace would certainly be biddable. It's pretty much of a crap-shoot but I don't think anyone would bid zero in this situation although that turned out to be the correct bid. An argument could be made for a bid of 1 simply because no matter what happens the most that you can lose is 10 points and if 1 Wizard is held by the opponents, which certainly is far more probable that 2 Wizards, then you stand to make 30 points.
There are many situations like this where LUCK takes precedence over skill. In this case wizardofwas was simply a victim of bad luck.

View User's Profile E-Mail User View All Posts By User U2U wizard This User Has MSN Messenger   wizard 's ICQ status
The Boss



Mood:  
posted on 4-24-2006 at 03:26 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Thank you wizard...

...for another interesting topic.

So, what's the next problem we have to solve???

What about this one: A plane travels from Canada to the USA. Then the plane crashes EXACTLY EXACTLY on the border between the 2 countries...

The question between the 2 governments is: In which country will they bury the survivors???

(Ooops, this has nothing to do with Wizard. Sorry... )

View User's Profile View All Posts By User U2U The+Boss
The Boss



Mood:  
posted on 4-26-2006 at 01:59 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Oh Yes...

quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Wizard
PLANES DON'T CRASH




Yes, planes do crash.

But I don't know the odds...

View User's Profile View All Posts By User U2U The+Boss



CANCEL YOUR ACCOUNT
Powered by XMB 1.8 Partagium Final Edition 131002m
Forum Developed By Aventure Media & The XMB Group 2002
Processed in 0.0252910 seconds, 28 queries
2003, 2004, 2005 Wizard Cards - All Rights Reserved
Software Development and Web Design by
  Lawson Software Development - Adventurous Network Web Design
Contact Us: |