wizard
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| posted on 18/4/2006 at 11:50 PM |
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Your bid and why?
This happened to wizardofwas.
Situation: 5-player game. Hand 2 (2 cards)
You are last to bid.
You hold 2 Wizards.
Two different players have already bid 1 trick each. What do you bid and why?
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The Boss
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| posted on 20/4/2006 at 10:32 PM |
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Another interesting problem!
In this problem, it's a little hard to guess what the other players may have. Do the 2 players who bid 1, have a Wizard or not?
I guess this is another situation where the best choice is to bid 2, because of the points we may gain on our oponents if we make our bid.
If the dealer's card isn't a Wizard, we know that there's only 2 Wizards left in the 57 cards that we don't see. And our oponents have 8 cards unknown
to us, and obviously, 4 of them are NOT Wizards.
I don't know which are the odds. (I'll let Mr.Wizard count the odds this time.  ...)
(...then I'll correct him.  ) But I believe that the odds are on our side to make 2
tricks more often than 1 or 0 in this situation.
This reminds me Poker. There are some situations when if we stay in the hand, the odds are that we will win more than we will lose, if we always play
the same way those situations all our life.
So in this situation, maybe we'll lose if we bid 2 THIS TIME, but in the long run, we'll win more often than lose. And the impact on the score will be
highly in our favor if we make our 2 tricks. (+40, compared to +20 +20 -10 -10 for the 4 other players)
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The Boss
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| posted on 22/4/2006 at 09:56 PM |
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The science of biding...
The idea of biding is to try to estime the odds the best we can, WITH THE INFORMATIONS WE HAVE, WHEN IT IS OUR TURN TO BID. (Not right after the cards
are dealt, unless we bid first.)
So, if the first 4 bids were 0, and if nobody bid like an idiot or misclicked, the odds to make 2 tricks are 100%. And even if somebody with 1 Wizard
misclicked, this player will escape the 1st card, and we will win 2 tricks with our 2 Wizards.
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wizard
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| posted on 23/4/2006 at 02:19 AM |
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In reality wizardofwas bid 2 in this situation. Both of the prior bidders held wizards so he lost 20 points and they each gained 30.
There were only 10 cards dealt out of a deck of 60 plus the up-card for trump so what were the odds that all 4 Wizards would be dealt? If you simply
go by the odds it's a no-brainer but we have additional information in the form of 2 bids of 1. Either or both bids could have been made with a high
trump. In this situation a knowledge of the player's pattern of play is not very helpful either because all players would bid 1 with a Wizard and most
would bid 1 with a high trump. With only 2 cards in each hand any trump card from the 7-Ace would certainly be biddable. It's pretty much of a
crap-shoot but I don't think anyone would bid zero in this situation although that turned out to be the correct bid. An argument could be made for a
bid of 1 simply because no matter what happens the most that you can lose is 10 points and if 1 Wizard is held by the opponents, which certainly is
far more probable that 2 Wizards, then you stand to make 30 points.
There are many situations like this where LUCK takes precedence over skill. In this case wizardofwas was simply a victim of bad luck.
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The Boss
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| posted on 24/4/2006 at 03:26 AM |
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Thank you wizard...
...for another interesting topic.
So, what's the next problem we have to solve???
What about this one: A plane travels from Canada to the USA. Then the plane crashes EXACTLY EXACTLY on the border between the 2 countries...
The question between the 2 governments is: In which country will they bury the survivors???
(Ooops, this has nothing to do with Wizard. Sorry...  )
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The Boss
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| posted on 26/4/2006 at 01:59 AM |
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Oh Yes...
quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Wizard
PLANES DON'T CRASH
Yes, planes do crash.
But I don't know the odds...
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